Principal Analyst, Forecasting and Modelling
Wellington, NZ
Help shape the future of Education
We work to shape an education system that delivers equitable and excellent outcomes
Our organisation is made up of talented and committed people around Aotearoa, from a wide range of backgrounds and cultures. While we work in different groups and on different things, we all strive every day to make the biggest difference we can for our students in our education system.
About this role | Mō tēnei tūranga
The Principal Analyst, Forecasting and Modelling is a key leadership role responsible for the development and delivery of high-quality forecasts that inform funding, policy, and investment decisions across the education system.
Working across early learning, schooling, and education workforce, you’ll lead the design and improvement of forecast models used for Budget processes, funding allocations, and long-term system planning. You’ll contribute to high-priority initiatives, manage complex analytical work, and provide trusted advice to senior leaders and Ministers.
You’ll also play a central role in shaping how the team works — improving modelling systems, strengthening quality assurance, and supporting joined-up thinking across workstreams. This is a great opportunity for someone who brings technical expertise, strategic oversight, and a strong commitment to public value.
Salary range: $118,371 – $143,760 per annum + 3% KiwiSaver. The successful candidate will be appointed at a salary which reflects individual skills and experience.
For more details about the role, you can view the Job Description here.
About you | Mōhou ake
We’re looking for someone who combines technical skill with big-picture thinking. You’ll be confident working with complex data, understand how government funding and policy processes work, and enjoy collaborating to solve problems.
- Proven experience developing or maintaining financial or statistical models in a complex setting
- Strong analytical skills, with an ability to connect your work to broader policy and investment decisions
- Clear and confident communication skills — including explaining technical ideas to non-technical audiences
- A collaborative approach and commitment to supporting a high-performing team
- An interest in improving forecasting processes, tools, and modelling systems.
- The ability and willingness to adhere to the Public Service Standards of Integrity and Conduct.
In return, you’ll have the opportunity to work on high-impact, high-profile work where your analysis directly informs funding, policy, and investment decisions. You’ll be part of a supportive, technically strong team that values learning, collaboration, and the delivery of insights that make a real difference.
About our group and team | Mātau rōpū ake
The Forecasting and Modelling team sits within the Ministry of Education’s Data and Insights group. We are responsible for major forecasts across the education system — including those related to early learning, teacher salaries, school operational funding, and education workforce planning.
Our work supports strategic planning, operational delivery, and Budget decisions. In addition to our core forecasting responsibilities, we provide analysis across the Ministry and support teams with their modelling and analytical work — helping to ensure decisions are informed by strong evidence and insight.
You’ll be joining a technically strong and collaborative team with a strong culture of learning, peer support, and continuous improvement.
Are you ready to make a difference? | Kua rite koe mō tēnei mahi?
If this opportunity interests you, please submit your cover letter and resume by using the ‘apply' button. In your cover letter we’d like to know about you, your values, or anything else you’d like to share. We’re keen to understand your motivations, strengths, transferable skills, and the diverse perspectives you will bring to the role.
For further information, please contact Ken Maher, Acting Manager at ken.maher@education.govt.nz
Applications close Midnight – Monday, 23 June 2025
We want our people to feel valued for their unique qualities and have a sense of belonging. If you require assistance or adjustments to fully participate in the recruitment process, please let us know.
