Manager, Forecasting and Modelling

Help shape the future of Education

We work to shape an education system that delivers equitable and excellent outcomes

Our organisation is made up of talented and committed people around Aotearoa, from a wide range of backgrounds and cultures. While we work in different groups and on different things, we all strive every day to make the biggest difference we can for our ākonga in our education system.

About this role | Mō tēnei tūranga

The Manager, Forecasting and Modelling leads and manages a team that operates as a centre of expertise and excellence in forward-looking analysis to inform many of the most critical decisions taken by the Government and others in the education system. The work is financially-focused, but requires an understanding of education system policy settings, dynamics and drivers in the external environment.

Key responsibilities include:

• Delivering high quality forecasts of future public expenditure for large components of the $19 billion that the government invests annually in the schooling and early childhood education system.
• Working with colleagues across the Ministry of Education and beyond on cutting-edge policy development, utilising our expertise in policy costing and impact analysis
• Undertaking operational rate-setting and eligibility calculations, to ensure that schools and early learning services are appropriately funded.

The Manager's role is to lead, support and inspire the analysts in the team, to work with stakeholders across the Ministry to plan a work programme that aligns with the Ministry's vision and the Government's priorities, and to oversee the effective and efficient delivery of work.

Salary range: $121,139 - $181,709 per annum + 3% kiwi saver.  The successful candidate will be appointed at a salary which reflects individual skills and experience.

For more details about the role, you can view the job description here. 

We also offer:

• Flexible working arrangements where everyone feels valued & supported.
• The ability to purchase extra days leave.
• A range of employee network groups.
• An inclusive environment that encourages your personal cultural competency journey.
• Development and learning, including mentorship programmes and internal secondments.
• Wellness initiatives to support your overall health and wellbeing.

About you | Mōhou ake

To thrive in this role you will hold a dual passion for:

• The potential of evidence and analysis to contribute to better decisions that deliver equitable and excellent outcomes, and
• The opportunity afforded to Managers to build and maintain positive and productive cultures and operating models that enable all team members to grow and succeed.

Managers in our group are expected to prioritise people leadership. Your number one responsibility will be to actively support the development of staff members, and to foster a culture in which everyone's voice is heard and valued, wellbeing is paramount, and inclusive practices drive continuous improvement and high performance. You will have an opportunity to contribute to our wider management cohort in leading the development of group strategy and improvement initiatives.

The advice we tender influences decisions that impact the public finances by hundreds of millions each year. The team's credibility relies on collaboration and awareness of policy, operational and environmental developments; and also the robustness of processes that ensure reliability. As the leader you will model these behaviours and ensure that processes are embedded, and standards maintained. You will need to exercise sound judgement and be comfortable navigating complexity and ambiguity - sometimes under time pressure. To be impactful in this role you will require excellent communication skills which you apply to understanding stakeholders' needs and translating technical information into clear and easily understood implications.

You will have a team of highly capable analysts to undertake the detailed number-crunching, but you will enjoy overseeing and guiding this work if you are highly numerate and comfortable dealing with financial information, can use strategic thinking and communication skills to build bridges between complementary political, technical and operational perspectives, and have a flair for coming up with innovative analytical approaches to novel challenges.

Detailed knowledge of forecasting and financial analysis is not a pre-requisite but would be a significant advantage.

All Ministry of Education employees must possess the ability and willingness to adhere to the Public Service Standards of Integrity and Conduct.

About our group and team | Mātau rōpū ake

Our Group, Te Pae Aronui - Operations and Integration helps drive a focus on equity throughout Te Tāhuhu by connecting across the Ministry and providing expert support and services into the regions. We use our functions and capabilities collectively to shape and influence the direction of education in Aotearoa New Zealand by gathering insights, regulation, providing service design and delivery functions, and understanding ākonga and whānau, communities and businesses.

The Forecasting & Modelling team is responsible for analysis that supports Te Tāhuhu's Early Learning and Schooling policy and operational functions. The team works across the organisation to promote the effective use of evidence in policy design, investment decision-making and operational implementation.

You will be joining an inclusive and supportive management team, located within an impactful group at the centre of Ministry decision-making, and leading a team of friendly and dedicated professionals, all of whom believe in our ability to make a positive difference to the lives of New Zealanders.

Are you ready to make a difference? | Kua rite koe mō tēnei mahi?

If this opportunity interests you, please submit your cover letter and resume by using the ‘apply' button. In your cover letter we’d like to know about you, your values, or anything else you’d like to share. We’re keen to understand your motivations, strengths, transferable skills, and the diverse perspectives you will bring to the role.

For further information, please contact Sam Jolly, Manager of the Analysis, Research & Evaluation group at Sam.Jolly@education.govt.nz  

Applications close Midnight – Monday, 17 March 2025.

We want our people to feel valued for their unique qualities and have a sense of belonging. If you require assistance or adjustments to fully participate in the recruitment process, please let us know.